In the pattern of mortality distribution over time in connection with periodic fluctuations in solar activity, we observe, in addition to the discussed rises in mortality during epochs of solar maxima, other phenomena as well, namely rather sharp increases in overall mortality during years of minima. This phenomenon is clearly evident on our mortality graphs for Russia and Simbirsk Governorate. To clarify the question of how consistently this phenomenon occurs in other cases, statistical material on infant mortality under one year of age in Moscow Governorate for the period from 1883 to 1917 was examined. We proceed from the assumption that if this phenomenon is caused by the influence of any physical-chemical factor of the external environment, produced by a known state of solar activity, then the child’s organism, which is not yet particularly sensitive, should react to this influence. Indeed, referring to the accompanying text of the statistical table compiled by P. I. Kurkin, we read the following: “Child mortality in the governorate follows a trend of gradual decline… On the normal path of decline… there sometimes arise moments when child mortality sharply and steeply increases; seemingly with some periodicity once every 5 years (1885, 1889-1890, 1895, 1900-1905, 1909-1910, 1913) and mostly end with a rapid return to normal. The mortality curve sometimes rises above the general level of decline, but sometimes falls below it, and this maintains a distinct downward slope in the general movement of child mortality.”
For the convenience of comparing data on solar activity with data on child mortality in Moscow Governorate, we will find the level of decline and take the deviations from this level for our comparison (Table 37). Plotting the obtained values on a coordinate system (Fig. 107) and comparing them with the schematized curve of solar activity, we see that the increase in the percentage of infant mortality in Moscow Governorate falls on years of both maximum and minimum intensity in the Sun’s activity, with the rise of the curves during epochs of maxima being somewhat higher than during epochs of minima. Here, the 5-6 year periodicity noted by P. I. Kurkin is also easily discernible. Can we now provide a rational explanation for this phenomenon, so clearly expressed on our curves? We can, as is usually done, construct a series of hypotheses, none of which, however, will fully satisfy us.
After we clarified the connection between the empirical series of mortality in various localities of Russia and solar activity, it seemed interesting to us to compare the same phenomena using the method of superimposing periods on the period along the axis of solar maxima, with the aim of obtaining an average curve of a series of connected waves for each locality. This method, as we have seen above, allows us to erase the individual features of each separate wave and eliminate those random fluctuations that may occur under the influence of various temporary and local causes. At the same time, this method provides the fullest possibility to reveal those fluctuations that arise under the influence of some constantly acting factors, in this case factors of cosmic origin. We subjected all the material on mortality to processing by the indicated method and obtained the curves presented in Fig. 97. Undoubtedly, during these curves a strict coincidence is revealed at many points.
Let us first consider our average curve of connected waves of overall mortality for European Russia from 1867 to 1917 (Table 38). This curve consists of four rises, the highest of which falls on the second year after the maxima. In the years of the latter, on the contrary, this curve shows a minimum. The next average curve of overall mortality for Moscow from 1862 to 1924 (Table 35) also consists of four rises, the highest of which also falls on the second year after the maxima, and in the years of the latter this curve also falls. We see an approximately similar picture in the average curve of overall mortality for Petersburg, now Leningrad, from 1844 to 1924. The mortality maximum falls on the second year after the solar maxima.
Fig. 9 7. Curves: 1 – overall mortality for Simbirsk Governorate from 1884 to 1921; 2 – overall mortality for St. Petersburg from 1844 to 1924; 3 – overall mortality for Moscow from 1862 to 1924; 4 – overall mortality for all Russia from 1867 to 1917; 5 – overall mortality for St. Petersburg from 1865 to 1924. Red curve – solar activity. 288
