O.L. Chizhevsky — Earth Echoes of Solar Storms Part 11

Chapter VI

Epidemics and solar maxima do not exist, and plague epidemics develop equally well both during periods of solar maxima and during periods of solar minima. But in this case, it remains completely unclear why, over all previous centuries, plague epidemics were quite well distributed in time according to the maximum tension of solar activity. How can these contradictory data be reconciled? Do they not lead microbiologists to any new conclusions about changes in the viability of the plague virus in the last century, caused by socio-economic and biological factors? Indeed, judging by the chronology and statistics of plague epidemics in past centuries, plague epidemics or pandemics struck humanity less frequently but more severely; whereas in the 19th century, plague appeared more frequently, but its mortality seemed to have slightly decreased overall. However, this issue requires special research and cannot be resolved so easily.

On the other hand, one can assume that in past centuries, and especially in ancient times, chronicles and annals, for quite understandable reasons, did not record all epidemics that occurred in a given country, but only the most devastating plagues. Thus, for past centuries, we have a list of the most significant epidemics. Table 19 shows the number of maximum and minimum solar activity periods from the 6th to the 19th centuries.

Table 19 Number of maximum and minimum solar activity periods from the 6th to the 19th centuries.

Thus, there seems to have been an involuntary filtering of epidemics based on their severity and significance, and therefore, in our chronology for past centuries, we find only the most devastating plague epidemics. And the vast majority of these epidemics fall on periods of maximum solar activity.

Fig. 53 Diagram of plague mortality in India from 1892 to 1922 (according to Zabolotny). Below is the solar activity curve.

Indeed, if we calculate for the 6th to 19th centuries the number of solar maxima and minima periods during which plague epidemics occurred, we obtain the result presented in Table 19. Our calculation shows that, including the 19th century, out of all solar activity periods during which plague epidemics occurred, only 35% of plague epidemics fell during periods of solar minima.

While not attributing any absolute significance to this calculation for a number of methodological reasons, we cannot fail to note that fluctuations in solar activity have some, albeit not entirely clear, influence on the temporal distribution of plague epidemics. This influence is evident in the fact that during years of increased solar activity, plague epidemics have a greater chance of occurring and spreading more widely than during years of low solar activity. However, plague epidemics are not rare even during solar minima, and in this regard, plague epidemics present an interesting peculiarity whose further study may lead to extremely fascinating discoveries.

Our two diagrams (Fig. 53 and 54) show the distribution of plague epidemics in India from 1898 to 1922 and in Augsburg from 1501 to 1650. From the diagram of plague mortality in India, it is evident that plague epidemics occurred both during solar maxima and during solar minima, with the difference that during the solar minimum period (1912-1913), the mortality rate from plague epidemics was slightly lower than in the preceding period.

Fig. 54 Mortality in Augsburg from 1501 to 1650 (Pjc.ie). Peaks in the curve represent mortality from epidemics, primarily from plague. Red dots indicate years of solar maxima.

The other mortality diagram we have presented (borrowed from an unpublished work by Resle) is much more interesting. It shows the mortality trend in Augsburg according to the oldest statistics, with sharp upward jumps in the curve corresponding to years of widespread epidemics. Resle notes the following epidemic years, many of which were plague-related: 1504-1505, 1511-1512, 1521, 1535-1536, 1546-1547, 1563-1564, 1571-1572, 1596, 1616, 1626-1628, 1632-1635. The corresponding solar maxima periods, according to Fritz and Svyatsky and later Wolf, fall on the years: 1510, 1519, 1528, 1537, 1548, 1589, 1605, 1626, 1639, and 1649.

Subsequently (17th-20th centuries), Augsburg’s plague epidemic statistics no longer note such events, and over the entire 250-year period, the statistical curve shows only three upward spikes. Thus, we see that, according to Augsburg’s statistics, the years of highest mortality from epidemic diseases, primarily plague, correlate quite well with solar maxima.

Can we now, based on all the above, speak of the periodicity of plague epidemics in connection with solar periodicity? Such a conclusion would at least be premature, despite the fact that this periodicity sometimes appears extremely clearly. It was first noted by Evagrius in the 6th century, and later by Chalen de Vinario, as I wrote in the first chapter. Here, we can also point out that the years 1371 and 1382, cited by the latter author, exactly coincide with years of solar maxima, which is particularly interesting.

One of the first attempts to establish the periodicity of plague epidemics, as far as I know, belongs to the German researcher R. Mewes. Selecting certain dates of plague epidemics over a long historical period (1379 BCE to 1900 CE) quite arbitrarily, Mewes supposedly obtained an 11-year periodicity of plague epidemics. However, the complete arbitrariness in the selection of historical dates, the lack of any criteria in the studied issue, and the extreme carelessness in conclusions do not allow us to consider Mewes’ attempt as serious. For now, we can only state the fact of a certain dependence in the development of plague epidemics on solar maxima and limit our conclusions accordingly.

Nevertheless, we have grounds to construct a hypothesis about the causes underlying the observed phenomenon. Do specific solar radiation during solar maxima directly affect the plague virus, or do they promote the reproduction and epizootics of rodents (tarbagans, ground squirrels, rats, mice), which, along with their flea parasites, are the cause of terrible plague epidemics and pandemics?

The clarification of this issue, as well as the relationship between fluctuations in solar activity and the intensity of the plague virus, is a matter for the future. An extremely interesting and quite peculiar correlation with the periodic activity of the Sun is exhibited by epidemics of diphtheritic croup and diphtheritic angina, or, combining these two diseases, as caused by the same pathogenic microbe (Löffler’s bacillus), diphtheria.

Historical information about diphtheria is very scarce. However, chroniclers and annalists mention this disease in their records, indicating that diphtheria was not uncommon in the Middle Ages. Hecker, however, believes that only some epidemics can be confidently identified as diphtheritic in origin. Thus, he notes diphtheria in 580 from the St. Denis Chronicle, a Roman epidemic in 1004 in Byzantium, and an epidemic in 1039 in Rome. Solar maxima, according to data on auroras, fall on 577, 680, 1002-1005, and 1039 respectively.

Then there is a significant gap in the records of diphtheria epidemics. New literature on diphtheria begins with the work of the Spaniard Gutierrez in the second half of the 15th century. The first information about diphtheria in the 16th century dates to 1517-1518, a period marked by a very widespread occurrence of plague, typhus, smallpox, and epizootics of cattle. Diphtheria raged in Switzerland, Germany, and the Netherlands at this time. This period coincided precisely with auroras, hailstorms, good grape harvests, according to Fritz, and apparently with a solar maximum.

Subsequently, there are records of diphtheria epidemics in 1544, 1545, 1557, 1564, and 1567, which occurred in various European countries. These dates already somewhat differ from the dates of solar maxima, which fall on the years 1549-1551, 1560, and 1571.

The next most severe development of diphtheria epidemics Hecker attributes to 1613, as well as to 1618-1620, then to 1630, 1642, 1650, and 1656. Solar activity during this time is distributed as follows: maxima fall on 1615, 1626, 1639, 1649, and 1660; minima fall on 1619, 1634, 1645, 1655, and 1666. As can be seen, the epidemic years lie between solar maxima and minima periods, except for the last date of 1666, which falls during a solar minimum.

In the 17th century, diphtheria also caused several significant epidemic outbreaks, which Hecker lists as follows: a series of diphtheria epidemics raged in Europe and North America during 1735-1739, which coincides very precisely with a solar maximum period of 1737-1739. The next period of diphtheria epidemics in Europe falls during the wars of 1748-1753, which also correlates well with the solar maximum of 1749-1751. This is followed by a spatially limited epidemic of diphtheria in Sweden and Utrecht in 1754-1755, coinciding with the solar minimum of 1755, and finally, notable epidemics in 1757-1762, again coinciding with the solar maximum of 1760-1762.

The next most severe period in the development of diphtheria epidemics must be noted as the period from 1767 to 1770, which is a period of high solar activity, with a maximum in 1769, as well as the years of the next epidemic—1776-1778, which also fall during this period. We should also mention the diphtheria epidemic of 1788-1790, which coincides entirely with the solar maximum of 1788.

In the 19th century, due to population integration and the growth of large industrial cities, diphtheria began to appear more frequently, although the most severe epidemics of this disease still correlated quite well with solar maxima, such as the epidemics of 1816-1818, 1825-1829, and others.

Despite the frequency of diphtheria epidemics, epidemiologists have long noticed that diphtheria epidemics occur approximately every 10 years, with each epidemic lasting several years with clear intervals of 6-7 years between epidemics. Russian and foreign physicians (Korchak-Chepurkovsky, M. Uvarov, Karamanenko, N. Tezyakov, Gavrilov, Meyerkov, Vaughan, and others) have reached these conclusions based on extensive statistical material. Various explanations have been proposed for this decadal periodicity from different perspectives. Uvarov attempts to explain this phenomenon as follows: not all ages are equally susceptible to diphtheria—it shows a sharp preference for ages 1 to 10 years. This property of diphtheria is fundamental, as it determines all subsequent epidemiological elements of diphtheria. Obviously, diphtheria epidemics can develop to a greater extent the more representatives of this age group there are. When the epidemic strikes the population, it affects precisely this age group, conferring immunity on the few survivors and thus causing the cessation of the disease due to a lack of susceptible individuals. This depletion of susceptible individuals lasts for a considerable time: new generations must grow up, and the most susceptible individuals will not reappear until about 10 years after the previous epidemic. As a result, diphtheria epidemics recur approximately every 10 years, especially where they are a common scourge.

While Uvarov’s explanation seems to account for the phenomenon of decadal periodicity, it does not withstand rigorous scrutiny, as the population increases annually, and it is unclear why it should take 10 years for susceptibility to re-emerge. The age group susceptible to diphtheria is constantly replenished, and the explanation given by Uvarov does not hold up under strict analysis.

Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that, in many localities, the course of diphtheria epidemics shows a noticeable parallelism with the course of solar activity. In many of our diagrams (Fig. 56, 57, and 58), the data for which (on diphtheria) are taken from the works of Uvarov and Novoselsky, these phenomena are particularly striking. The coincidence of the main points of the diphtheria and solar curves is evident.

Fig. 55 Diphtheria in Kherson Governorate from 1874 to 1908 and solar activity. The lower curve represents solar activity. Curve 1 – diphtheria in Kherson district; Curve 2 – diphtheria in Yelizavetgrad district; Curve 3 – diphtheria in Kherson Governorate.

Fig. 56 Diphtheria in Yelizavetgrad district (dashed line) and solar activity (red curve).

Fig. 57 Diphtheria in Kherson district (dashed line) and solar activity.

Diphtheria, having arisen more or less simultaneously in different places, tends to gradually spread from one locality to another until it covers the entire large territory of its usual epidemic spread. At first glance, in the overall picture of the spread of diphtheria epidemics from their centers of origin, no regularity can be discerned in their temporal progression in connection with periodic fluctuations in solar activity. However, upon closer examination of the material, certain correspondences between diphtheria epidemics and solar activity undoubtedly emerge. Thus, in most Russian governorates during the specified period, we observe that the diphtheria curves show definite upward spikes in years of solar maxima, specifically in 1892-1895 and 1903-1906. Admittedly, this kind of regularity is not observed in all governorates, but in most of them.

In other governorates, we see spikes in the diphtheria curve in 1896-1899 and 1908-1909, i.e., in years that lie on the slope of solar activity. But the most remarkable fact from the numerous curves presented by Tezyakov in his work is that in years of solar maxima and minima during this period, i.e., in 1889-1890 and 1900-1902, all diphtheria epidemic curves, with a few exceptions, decline, forming their epidemic minimum during the solar minimum period.

Indeed, the general summary of diphtheria across all of European Russia (including the North Caucasus) from 1886 to 1908 clearly confirms the above. From the curve shown in Fig. 58, two maxima of diphtheria epidemics and two minima are visible, coinciding with the corresponding points in the solar activity curve with a leftward shift.

Fig. 58 Diphtheria across all of Russia (upper curve) and solar activity from 1886 to 1908. The diphtheria curve is shifted two years to the left.

It should be noted here that during the period of 1908-1910, according to Tezyakov’s data, there was a sharp upward spike in the diphtheria epidemic across all of Russia, which should have disrupted the consistent pattern of our curves.

If we now turn to the distribution of diphtheria epidemics in Western Europe, we find a similar regularity in their dependence on solar activity. As in various Russian governorates, so too in various European countries, we encounter either a precise parallelism between diphtheria epidemics and solar activity or certain deviations from it, expressed in lagging or leading.

The most remarkable fact in the course of the diphtheria curves, as well as in their deviations from the solar activity curve, is the tendency of the epidemic curves to maintain the same number of rises and falls, i.e., the same number of maxima and minima points that occur in the solar activity curve. Thus, diphtheria in Western Europe generally exhibits the same 11-year periodicity as diphtheria epidemics in Russia.

After our study “Preparation for a Certain Event” was published in Germany in 1927, a number of researchers have taken up this issue. For example, Shostakovich (Irkutsk) calculated that diphtheria in Danish cities from 1860 to 1912 develops according to two periods—2.77 and 11.33 years. Having discovered this phenomenon, Shostakovich, however, did not pay attention to the fact that the 11-year period of diphtheria in Denmark coincides with exceptional accuracy with solar activity, as shown in our diagram (Fig. 59), but forms a complete counter-parallelism with it (in our graph, solar activity is represented in an inverted form).

This graph also reveals another extremely important detail, the study of which may lead to interesting discoveries in the field of epidemiological mechanics: the introduction of serotherapy in 1894 immediately disrupts the coordinated movement of the two curves—the diphtheria curve. Human intervention in the natural course of natural phenomena changes this course and marks humanity’s victory over elemental forces.

An analogous phenomenon is observed in the mortality rate from typhoid fever in Trenton (USA) after the introduction of water chlorination and filtration (see below).

For other Western European countries, using data from Novoselsky, although we did not find such a clear correspondence of diphtheria curves with solar activity as, for example, in Kherson Governorate or Denmark, it is still not difficult to determine that a fairly strong connection between diphtheria epidemics and solar activity persists here as well. Thus, in some countries, the highest points of the diphtheria curve coincide very well with solar maxima; in others, we observe the opposite phenomenon: epidemic maxima quite nicely coincide with solar minima. The countries of the first type include England with Wales, Scotland, and Ireland; Prussia, Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Romania, Austria, and Italy. The countries forming a counter-parallelism with solar activity include France, Sweden, and, as we have already seen, Denmark.

Table 20 Diphtheria in Kherson Governorate in absolute numbers

Table 21 Diphtheria in Russia from 1886 to 1908 (according to Tezyakov)

Fig. 59 Diphtheria in Danish cities and solar activity. The lower curve represents solar activity. The upper curve represents diphtheria.

Fig. 60 Diphtheria in Western European countries and solar activity. The lower curve represents solar activity. Curve 1 – mortality from diphtheria in Switzerland; 2 – in Prussia; 3 – in the Netherlands; 4 – in Belgium; 5 – in England and Wales; 6 – in Scotland; 7 – in Ireland.

Fig. 61 Diphtheria in Western European countries and solar activity. The lower curve represents solar activity. Curve 1 – resulting average for countries with direct dependence; Curve 2 – with inverse dependence. Black line in 1894 – introduction of serotherapy.

Fig. 62 Qualitative diagram of the relationship between diphtheria mortality in St. Petersburg and solar activity. The upper line represents the trend of diphtheria mortality dynamics; the lower line represents the course of solar activity.

Fig. 63 Qualitative diagram of the relationship between diphtheria cases in Liverpool and solar activity. The upper line represents the trend of diphtheria dynamics; the lower line represents the course of solar activity.

Waves of epidemic catastrophes