Oleksandr Kolesnikov
CYCLIC INDEX OF BARBO: A VIEW OF THE CURRENT DECADE
While translating “World Astrology” — a book written by three English authors: Michael Baigent, Nicholas Campion, and Charles Harvey (Camrion, Charles Harvey; The Aquarian Press, 1984) — I encountered a very simple yet vivid and extremely interesting approach to assessing the state and development trends of the world in its political, economic, and other aspects. However, this approach was presented in a rather general form; I wanted to apply it to the period we are living in and see what would come of it. Thus, the article you are offered for your attention was born.
* Initially, the approach in question was proposed by the French astrologer Gouchon.
* World astrology primarily deals with “higher” planets that move slowly and symbolize long periods in the development of humanity. These planets include Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto. If we form pairs from the listed planets, we get 10 pairs. Here they are:
– Jupiter — Saturn;
– Jupiter — Uranus;
– Jupiter — Neptune;
– Jupiter — Pluto;
– Saturn — Uranus;
– Saturn — Neptune;
– Saturn — Pluto;
– Uranus — Neptune;
– Uranus — Pluto;
– Neptune — Pluto.
For each pair of planets, the angular distance between the planets forming the pair can be determined at any given moment. Suppose that on March 21, 1993, Jupiter was at 11 degrees Libra, and Saturn was at 25 degrees Aquarius. This means that the angular distance between Jupiter and Saturn on that day was 134 degrees. Similarly, angular distances can be determined for all ten pairs of planets on any day and year. But why? The thing is that Gouchon noticed: if such distances are calculated at the beginning of the year and then summed up, we get a certain number that characterizes that year. If we determine such a number for each year and then plot all the numbers on a graph for, say, the 20th century, the most noticeable and prolonged “dips” on the graph will correspond to periods of international crises (see Fig. 1). The “dips” on the graph quite clearly indicate the periods of World War I and World War II, the Korean War, the war in Indochina, the Suez Crisis, the Vietnam War, as well as the global economic crisis of the early 1980s, when there was no real war, but the “Cold War” was in full swing — many remember the saga of the “First Strike.”
Gouchon’s work did not gain wide popularity, but, fortunately, it caught the eye of the renowned French astrologer André Barbault. Barbault took up a detailed verification of this. He plotted graphs for different historical periods and concluded that although the method cannot be expected to indicate every detail of world history, it generally shows the main trends of global tension, growth, and decline with quite high accuracy. Barbault also provided a theoretical basis for Gouchon’s discovery, showing that the “beating” of the graph is nothing other than the current pulsations of Plato’s Great Year. Plato believed that the world unfolds in cycles, or “years,” each lasting 36,000 ordinary years. At the beginning of such a cycle, according to Plato, all planets are in conjunction (superconjunction) at one point of the Zodiac. The cycle ends with a superconjunction at another point, and the period of flourishing of each cycle corresponds to the maximum scattering of planets across the Zodiac. The beginning of each cycle — superconjunction, or minimal scattering — is characterized, according to Plato, by disorder, chaos, death, and decay. Conversely, the period of maximum scattering is a time of optimism, growth, and construction.
What does the graph show us? The lower it falls, the less, therefore, the sum of angular distances in planetary pairs (Barbault called this sum the “cyclic index”) is, the closer the planets are to the initial (or final) superconjunction, the closer the world is to chaos. Conversely, the higher the graph, the greater the distances between the planets, the more optimism and order prevail in the world. This ancient theory found confirmation in modern practice. But this was not the end of it. Barbault’s followers and students proposed various versions of developing the original idea. The most notable was the work of Claude Genty.
It has long been known that when a large number of planetary cycles are in the phase of growth, “divergence” — that is, the planets in a pair move from conjunction to opposition — the psychology of the masses is characterized by optimism, cheerfulness, initiative, recklessness, a readiness to take risks, explore, and do something new. For the world as a whole, such periods are marked by processes of growth, development, and movement toward realization. A characteristic period when most cycles were in the growth phase was the so-called “Khrushchev Thaw.” Another characteristic period corresponds to the beginning of “perestroika” in our country. Conversely, when a large number of planetary cycles are in the declining phase (from opposition to the next conjunction), the world experiences processes of division, dispersion, and decline. Caution grows in society, a desire to retreat, pessimism, and an emphasis on the need for preservation, economy, and consolidation prevail. Such was the period from approximately 1978 to 1981 — the height of the “stagnation” in our country.
Genty proposed to take into account not only the distance between the planets in a pair but also the phase of the cycle — growth or decline. The distances between the planets in diverging cycles, which are increasing, he proposed to consider with a “+” sign, and in declining, converging cycles — with a “−” sign. The resulting sum of angular distances Genty called the index of cyclic equilibrium. This index can also be plotted on a graph, which in many ways resembles the graph for Barbault’s cyclic index but will also have interesting dynamic features. We will compare both of these graphs below.
Now I will say one thing: unlike Barbault’s cyclic index, which is always positive, Genty’s index of cyclic equilibrium can be both positive and negative. Based on the results of his approach, Genty proposed the “Law of the Rhythms of Time.” The stability or instability in the world is directly related to the difference between the sum of the phases of angular distances of all diverging cycles of the five outer planets and the sum of the phases of declining cycles. As long as the resulting figure remains positive, the Earth experiences relative stability, a period of evolution; when the resulting figure is negative, the Earth enters a period of crisis and involution.
All that has been discussed so far, I learned from the book “World Astrology.” However, I had two questions:
1. What is the essential difference between the graphs of Barbault and Genty?
2. What can the considered approaches tell us about the decade in which we live?
I had to do some arithmetic. However, I will not tire the readers with numbers; I will immediately present the obtained result — it is shown in the figures. Barbault’s index is shown in Figure 2, and Genty’s index in Figure 3.
[Both graphs are shown here]
The graphs show that Barbault’s index is currently decreasing [the article was written in 1993], and its decline will continue until 1996. From this, we can draw the discouraging conclusion that around 1996, the situation in the world will be tense. This tension is already growing, but it will reach its peak in 1996 — the world will approach chaos. However, from 1997 onwards, the situation in the world will begin to improve. The trend toward improvement will continue until the end of our century and the beginning of the next. Which area does this tension belong to — political, economic, or some other? Generally speaking, all these areas are very closely interconnected, but if we look at the features of historical periods corresponding to the “dips” in Barbault’s index, we will notice a gradual shift in the “center of gravity” of tension toward the military sphere (World War I) into the economic sphere (the crisis of the early 1980s). Let us hope that this trend will continue — wars are too threatening in our time. But now let us look at Genty’s index graph. It gives us completely different information. The index has negative values from 1991 to 1993, reaching its minimum in 1992.According to Gane, from 1991 to 1993 the Earth is in a period of crisis or involution, after which the situation stabilizes.A stable evolutionary process emerges. The charts appear to contradict one another. Yet in reality, this is not a contradiction—they simply describe different aspects of one and the same process. If we recall the calculation order of the Barbó and Ganyu indices, we see that the Barbó index reflects the actual situation, while the Ganyu index indicates the current developmental trend. The simplest way to explain this idea is through analogy.
Our world is like a heavy railway train with great inertia. Once it slows down, it is not so easy to accelerate it again. This train, its motion, is described by the Barbó index. The driving force of the train is the locomotive. The train obeys the locomotive’s efforts—though perhaps not immediately. The locomotive may begin to accelerate, yet the train’s inertia causes a delay between the emergence of the acceleration trend and the actual acceleration. You understand that the locomotive is represented by the Ganyu index. The locomotive is governments, leaders, and proactive groups within the masses.
Since 1992, they have begun to accelerate. Theoretically, from this point onward, optimism, cheerfulness, and enterprise should increase. Spring has come to the world. Have you noticed such a trend in your life? Personally, I feel it very strongly. Yet real improvements will not arrive at once. When discussing the Barbó and Ganyu indices in my Moscow group, I mentioned that as a result of braking, “deficit gaps” have formed that must still be filled—only then can we move forward.
How interesting it was to hear from one of the students at the next session that in a speech by the Minister of Finance, my very words about “gaps” were echoed—gaps that are now beginning to be filled by reform results, though the surface of these results remains invisible.
I would suggest that the Ganyu index relates more to the political situation, to the “human factor” in global processes, to the enthusiasm and spirit of the masses, and to values that are to some degree subjective. Meanwhile, the Barbó index more directly determines the real, objective situation and is therefore likely tied to economic conditions in society.
Thus, the simplest astrological methods allow us to assess trends and prospects in global developments. However, after all these reflections, a natural question arises: what comes next? What forecast can this method provide for the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century?
I have reviewed the situation up to 2010, and here is what emerged. The Barbó index rises until 2003–2004, then begins a gradual decline. In connection with this, we can assume that serious conflicts and upheavals in the world between 1998 and 2005 are unlikely. The Barbó index reached a value comparable to that of 2003 only once before, in 1963–1965.
As for the Ganyu index, its chart (see Fig. 4) from the beginning of the century until 1946 was almost continuously in negative territory, and even afterward often fell below zero. Looking at this chart, one involuntarily recalls warnings about the coming of the Antichrist, about the Dark Age. Could these warnings not belong to our 20th century, given that most of it, according to Ganyu, falls within a period of involution?
Yet from 1994 until the end of the period I reviewed, the Ganyu index will remain almost continuously positive. Moreover, in 2000–2002 it will reach a magnitude never before seen in the 20th century. If in 1960–1961, when this index reached its highest value in our century, human enthusiasm was so great that humanity left Earth and ventured into space, what will mark the beginning of the next century?
And one more important point: in our century, a decline in the Barbó index has always been accompanied by a drop in the Ganyu index into negative territory. Yet with the decline that begins around 2007, the Ganyu index will remain positive. Thus, the pace of movement slows, but the direction toward evolution is preserved.
So, dear readers, let us look to the future with optimism and, through our lives, help the Universe guide us toward the light.
