A.L. Chizhevsky — Earth Echoes of Solar Storms Part 16

Table 38 Number of sudden deaths by year during the period 1904–1924. (According to Kindlimann)

1904  328    1909  346
1905  331    1910  311
1906  519    1911  356
1907  336    1912  345
1908  336    1913  360
          1914  345
          1915  304
          1916  385
          1917  360
          1918  406
          1919  376
          1920  378
          1921  379
          1923  335
          1924  404
          1929    14

Table J9 England (according to Morrell, 1928)

 322

Minimum of mortality for one year warns about solar maxima. When processing all the material on Petersburg for the time from 1765 to 1924 (table. 36) the maximum of mortality passed the third year after solar maxima. Considering all these curves together, we see that they form quite a bright parallelism. If we were to connect the tops of each of these curves with a smoothly going line, the parallelism would present itself even more fully and, at the same time, would coincide with the average curve of solar activity with the shift of the latter to the right by two years. However, the most remarkable phenomenon in the listed curves should be considered that parallelism, which is revealed within the limits between the axis of maxima and the following minima. In our graph, the precisely coinciding rises and falls of the curves are connected by a dotted line. These phenomena in three cases out of four we also observe in the average curve of general mortality for the Simbirsk, now Ulyanovsk, province for 1844–1921, the maximum of which falls on the year before the solar (table. 37). These coincidences persistently draw attention to themselves and require an explanation. The very method of constructing these curves testifies to the fact that they could manifest themselves only as phenomena that arise not under the influence of random causes, but always take place in the presence of strictly defined conditions, under the influence of a certain force of tension of the spot-forming process. If the distribution in time of general mortality, the distribution in time of solar activity of those or other diseases were a matter of chance and in no way depended on this cycle, then our curves would strive for a straight line thanks to the elimination of random fluctuations when one period is superimposed on another. But we see a picture that is quite the opposite: the fluctuations of the average curves form sharp bends, which tend to be parallel to each other, despite different localities and different times, and the only factor that generalizes this phenomenon is the periodic process of spot formation on the Sun.

Finally, it remains to clarify which diseases, standing in connection with this or that degree of tension of the spot-forming process, influence the synchronous rises of the average curves of mortality. As we have seen, these rises fall: the largest – on the 2nd year after the maxima, then on the 5th year after the maxima and, finally, take place 1–2 years before the maxima. We will not decide this question in this work: it requires a very detailed study and can distract us from the stated question about the general nature of the phenomena. We will limit ourselves only to the indication of the fact that the origin of the highest maximum of the average curves of general mortality on the 2nd year after solar maxima is well explained by the fact that the waves of many epidemics, standing in connection with the solar period, reach their maximum values 1–2 years after the year of the maximum of solar activity.

The curve of mortality in Petersburg forms two maxima – at the points -3 and +3, which, apparently, is the result of the predominant mortality from the flu. It would seem that “death and the Sun cannot look intently at each other.” However, this is not true: there are days when the Sun for a sick person is a source of death. On such days, from being a life-giver, it turns into a sworn enemy, from which there is no escape for a person anywhere. The lethal influence of the Sun catches up with a person everywhere, wherever they may be. Only science, which is given the ability to foresee phenomena in advance, can point to the danger that threatens, and it is the duty of the doctor to mobilize the tools of medicine so that the sick organism can withstand this unequal struggle with those derivative phenomena that arise as a result of the specific radiation of the Sun.

By analogy with physical phenomena, we can consider a sick organism as a system that is in an unstable equilibrium. We know that if a system in equilibrium is given a small impulse, or small damped oscillations of the system begin, or the disorder of equilibrium will begin to increase without limit until the entire system is completely altered. The first state of the system will be stable, the second – unstable. With similar states of different physical systems, we constantly encounter in relation to natural phenomena, starting from astronomical systems and ending with atomic ones. For phenomena of organic life, there is also no absolute exception to the general rules of nature, and we have the right to consider a sick organism to a certain extent as a system that has been brought out of a state of stable equilibrium. For such a system, it is enough to have a small impulse from the outside to gradually or even immediately increase the instability and the organism to die. Such an impulse directed at the organism from the outside can be sharp changes in the course of meteorological and geophysical factors, among which, as has usually been done until now, it is necessary not to overlook the electric and magnetic elements.

The fact that eruptions and explosions on the surface of the Sun exert an influence on the nervous system of people was first established in an irrefutable form during 1915–1919 on the basis of studying enormous statistical materials. The same opinion received confirmation in my doctoral dissertation “Research on the Periodicity of the World-Historical Process” (Moscow, 1918; Stockholm, 1920) and in a numerous series of following works, from which I want to present:

1. “Influence des osdiurnes et mensuelles de l’activite solaire sur les modifications de l’excitation nerveuse” (Paris, 1928; Toulon, 1929);

2. “Теорія геліотараксії” (Москва, 1930);

3. “Фактор, що сприяє виникненню і розповсюдженню збудливості під впливом пертурбацій у зовнішньому фізико-хімічному середовищі” (“Російсько-німецький медичний журнал”. Берлін, 1928, № 3 і 8).

In these works, covering hundreds of phenomena and many millions of statistical units, it was proven that the eruptions of the Sun, bombarding the Earth with electrons, disturb the electric and magnetic forces of the atmosphere and the Earth’s crust and produce the most diverse physical effects. At that time, it seemed clear to us a priori that the influence of these perturbations in the Earth’s electric and magnetic field should have been especially acutely perceived by old people, mentally and nervously ill people, people suffering from various neuroses, people with heart disease of all kinds, and, finally, people who have transferred severe infectious diseases. And indeed, we repeatedly had to hear and read during the period 1915–1919 about a number of cases of sudden death, and the days of death were those days when magnetic storms raged over the Earth and high above the Earth the northern lights flared up. The statistical data we collected, although insufficient for any final conclusion, nevertheless fully confirmed the above a priori conclusions.

As an example of these conclusions, we can present the comparison of two curves: the curve of mortality from diseases of the nervous system in Moscow for the months from September 1, 1924, to October 1, 1927, and the curve of monthly solar activity for the same time. As we can see, our two curves form quite an expressive parallelism. There is nothing improbable in the fact that the radiations of the spot-forming process or the geophysical factors disturbed by them (for example, atmospheric electricity) influence those or other departments of our nervous system, and even the higher nervous activity, determining our behavior. This question, subjected to our systematic study, was resolved positively based on the processing of a very large statistical material. The influence of the above factors ultimately boils down to a modification of nervous excitability, to a change in the degree of reaction of the nervous system to external irritations.

When the flux of electrons or protons in the form of a colossal cloud passes by the Earth or strikes directly into it, then instantaneous strong perturbations occur in the motion of the electromagnetic fields, magnetic storms flare up, the northern lights flare up high above the Earth, the arrow of electrometric devices should temporarily be stopped. However, even six years before the beginning of our observations, attention was drawn to the phenomenon of the coincidence of cases of sudden death with the passage of solar spots across the central meridian of the Sun by Kindlimann in 1910 in Burgdorf (Switzerland). At that time, he made the first observation, which also became the beginning of further material collection. This observation also consisted in comparing cases of sudden death with the passage of a group of spots across the central meridian of the Sun. In his brochure dated November 8, 1925, Kindlimann gives a summary of sudden deaths for the years 1904–1924 per 10,000 inhabitants (table. 38).

From this table, it follows that in the years of maximum tension in the activity of the Sun, the number of sudden cases of death increases, as, for example, in 1906 and 1907, 1916–1919. Finally, with the first jump in solar activity in 1924, we also have an increased number of unexpected deaths. However, the most detailed development of this problem belongs to three French researchers: doctors M. Faure, G. Sardou (M. Faure. G. Sardou) and the famous astronomer Vallot (Vallot).

M. Faure, while still a medical student at the Saint-Antoine Hospital in Paris, in a densely populated working quarter, drew the attention of himself and his colleagues to the following persistently repeated fact: he noticed that if, at the beginning of the consultation, patients with acute diseases arrived, then it was possible to expect a worsening of their condition on that day. At the same time, Faure noticed that patients suffering from intermittent pains (rheumatism, diseases of the nervous system, heart, stomach, and intestinal diseases) experienced attacks of pain at the same time, regardless of the conditions in which they lived. Paying special attention to this fact, the French doctor soon could state that attacks of neuralgia, angina pectoris, gastric fever, etc., which took place in the most diverse patients, coincided with each other with an accuracy of two to three days. Similar kinds of “series” were noticed in the phenomena of influenza, angina, bronchitis, as well as in a number of accidents. Attempts to compare these “series” with various meteorological phenomena turned out to be quite unsuccessful. Faure and his colleague Sardou, who also engaged in medical meteorology, soon came to the conclusion that these comparisons are well coordinated only in isolated cases but in no way can they cover that enormous number of coincidences that are constantly noted simultaneously over a large space of the Earth, in different, far-lying from each other places, where there were patients. A study was made of the comparison of “series” with the influence of dryness or humidity of the air, with the action of the northern or southern wind, barometric pressure, temperature, thunderstorm discharges, and other meteorological phenomena, and all these comparisons ultimately gave a negative result. They could not occur simultaneously in different parts of France and, therefore, could not give a general explanation of a number of regularities. Thus, the French researchers had to come to the conclusion that there are certain agents of external nature that are perceived by our organism but are not registered by meteorological instruments, which are much less sensitive than a living organism.

The case helped the specified French doctors find the correct path for research. This happened in Nice, where there is an automatic telephone system. Sometimes the telephone network suddenly began to function with interruptions or even completely ceased its activity for several hours, while no damage was observed in the devices, and their correct operation was restored by itself, without human intervention. Faure and Sardou repeatedly emphasized the wonderful coincidence that formed the basis of their work, namely: the days of disruptions in the operation of telephone devices systematically coincided with the disease “series”, i.e., with an increase in the number of cases of various attacks and exacerbations of diseases. There was an extremely clear picture of synchronous disruptions in the operation of electrical communication devices and the physiological mechanisms of humans. Taking into account that the cause of disruptions in the operation of electrical communication devices is solar spots, more precisely, spots that pass through the central meridian of the Sun, Faure and Sardou began to carefully note the dates of mass exacerbation of disease symptoms among their patients and invited the director of the meteorological station in Nice – Vallot – to joint work. Daily records were made of the spot-forming process and the course of the disease in a whole number of patients suffering from diseases of the heart, blood vessels, liver, kidneys, nervous system, and records of various symptoms of these diseases, such as: excitement, insomnia, depression of strength, prostration, retention of urine, urination, disorders of the intestines, digestion, melancholy, convulsions, tics, contractures, epileptoid and hysterical attacks, shortness of breath, fever, dizziness, fainting, attacks of tachycardia and arrhythmia, angina pectoris attacks. These records were kept for 267 days, from January 7 to September 30, 1921, over 237 patients, and gave the following results:

Number of 3-day periods with spot formation and exacerbations  21 – 84%
Number of periods with spot formation, but without exacerbations  4 – 16%
100%  

Number of periods without spot formation, but with exacerbations  20 – 33%
Number of periods without spot formation and without exacerbation  41 – 67%
Total number of periods without spot formation …  61 – 100%

If we take only cases of severe deterioration in the course of this or that disease, then it turns out:

Number of periods with spot formation and with severe cases  13
Total number of periods with spot formation  25
Number of periods without spot formation and with severe cases  5
Total number of periods without spot formation  61

Thus, the most serious cases in the exacerbation of diseases coincided with the passage of spots through the central meridian of the Sun. 84% of all deteriorations fell on periods free from spot formation. In his report presented to the Paris Medical Academy, doctors Faure, Sardou, and astronomer Vallot come to the following conclusion: the passage of spots through the central meridian of the Sun coincides in 84% of all cases with the exacerbation of various symptoms of chronic diseases and even with the appearance of severe ones. Similar kinds of complications can take place even without the passage of spots, but such cases of coincidence take place only in 33/$, in addition, and the complications themselves are less severe.

If the passage of solar spots through the central meridian of the Sun is not the only cause of inexplicable collective exacerbations of diseases, it should still be recognized as the most important. The question arises: which apparatuses of the human organism are the most sensitive to this kind of external influence? The French doctors, by analogy with telegraph and telephone devices, believe that the main role in the influence on our organism is played by the electric currents and magnetic fields that chaotically cut across the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere on the days of the passage of spots through the central meridian of the Sun. The increase in the number of sudden mortal cases and the appearance of sharp exacerbations in the course of the disease, according to Faure, is explained by the influence of the electric factors emitted by solar spots. These factors cause sharp paroxysms in the nervous apparatuses that regulate the vital processes, similar to how they produce sharp disruptions in the operation of the telegraph and the telephone; throughout the five years, from 1921 to 1926, Sardou and Faure conducted observations and came to the following conclusion:

“1. Almost all cases of the passage of spots through the central meridian of the Sun coincided with the exacerbations of diseases. The number of cases when such a coincidence did not take place was thus: a) sometimes the spots are very small and are located insufficiently close to the solar equator to allow their radiation to cover the entire Earth; b) the sensitivity of patients to external influences varies greatly; c) it is necessary to take into account the most diverse phases in the state of health of one and the same patient at different moments, taking into account the possible changes in his susceptibility. Small spots or spots located far from the equator, if we have a sufficiently large number of patients, all passages of spots will be accompanied by more or less apparent deteriorations in the state of health.
2. If all periods of the passage of spots through the central meridian of the Sun, apparently, are accompanied by cases of deterioration, not every case of deterioration of the disease coincides with the passage of spots. The number of periods of deterioration without spot-formation is approximately the same as the number of periods of deterioration with the passage of spots, and, therefore, the passage of spots explains only half of the cases. It is necessary, however, to add that approximately in one period out of two the cases of collective exacerbations were not explained at all, were not explained by the passage of spots and their cause remains unknown and after our research.
3. There is no parallelism between the state of health of the patient and the force of the attack at the last moment of paroxysm: in one patient, usually very sensitive, there is only a slight increase in the disease symptoms; in another, whose health seemed to be on the mend, there is a severe attack that leads him to death.
4. For the conduct of accurate and complete observations, it is necessary to take into account not only the day of the passage of the spot through the central meridian of the Sun, but the two days before and the two days after this passage. Experience shows that the magnetic perturbations (especially the polar lights) usually occur two days after the passage of the spots, and, meanwhile, the disease attacks often occur two days before this passage. Thus, for our calculations, it is necessary to accept a period of five days.”

Especially enriched were the archives of observations of the French doctors in the years of the maximum, when the spots appeared in large numbers and of large size. During these years, whenever a spot entered the plane of the central meridian, the painful phenomena were exacerbated so strongly that the lives of the patients were in danger.

In 1928, the French scientists sent their observations even further and distributed questionnaires to doctors in various cities of Western Europe. Observations for 1928–1937 fully confirmed the initial conclusion about the influence of the passage of spots through the central meridian of the Sun on the exacerbation of diseases and mortality. But the French scientists did not stop there. They continue their research further. And I must give due credit to my friend Dr. M. Faure, pointing out his inexhaustible energy. It was exclusively thanks to the energy and scientific enthusiasm of Faure that in 1933 he organized the International Institute for the Study of Solar, Terrestrial and Cosmic Radiations in Nice, which continues to conduct its work in the specified direction, convenes conferences periodically and prints its wonderful organ “Cosmic Biology.” Thanks to the initiative of Faure, his institute distributes questionnaires to many countries and many individuals about the course of solar phenomena and forecasts about solar spots. This wonderful initiative, in my deep conviction, should become the embryo of that information that the medical science will receive daily in the future from astronomers, astrophysicists, geophysicists and meteorologists.

The question about the influence of the spot-forming process on the organism also attracted the attention of the English doctor K. Morrell, who on August 17, 1928, at the International Congress of the Royal Institute of Public Health in Dublin, delivered a report “On the influence of solar storms on murders, epilepsy and suicides.” How diverse in their psychophysiological nature these phenomena may be, however, their frequency, apparently, also stands in dependence on solar activity. This is quite understandable, since the solar processes determine the general physiological tone of the organism, which already and determines itself as the higher nervous activity – the behavior in the case of murder or suicide, and as certain pathological nervous processes in the case of an attack of epilepsy.

Thanks to the kindness of Morrell, we have the opportunity in this true book to present the digital material that Morrell used, as well as to construct the curves according to the given material (table. 39, fig. 99). The comparison of the curves shows that solar activity rather determines the general direction in the course of other curves than the level of this direction, i.e. the degree of rise or fall. At the same time, there is no reason to believe that the known coincidence in the course of the curves is a random phenomenon. So, the coefficient of correlation, calculated by Morrell according to the Galton method, gave for the frequency of suicides and solar activity in 1921 the value equal to +0.47, and in 1924 +0.54. Further research of the question by Morrell led to positive conclusions. At the same time, Morrell believes that we are in front of an extremely complex question: what are the mechanisms of the influence of the electric processes that occur on the Sun, on the vital functions of the living organism of a person? Pointing to the variety of solar radiations, Morrell believes that among this variety there are some special radiations that can directly influence a person, i.e. are one of the main factors determining the general direction of behavior. Of course, it would be absolutely unreasonable to consider these solar radiations as the culprits of such actions as murder, suicide, or such phenomena as epileptic attacks, however, it is possible that, by changing the nervous-psychic tone, they can incline the human organism and its psyche, which are in an unstable equilibrium, toward the commission of this or that action.

It is undeniable, according to Morrell, that the solar influences stand outside any connection with the climatic and seasonal factors and are quite independent agents of cosmic origin that determine the tone of human behavior, and, therefore, control the cardinal vital functions.

New research made by Morrell, in his opinion, shows that life and many of its manifestations are under the strong influence of solar agents and that this influence extends much deeper than it could be thought. Morrell asserts that in the not too distant future there may arise a need for the practical application of the discoveries made in this direction in the sphere of preventive medicine in the sense of the possibility of the preliminary warning of subjects with an unstable psyche about the danger that threatens. The work of Morrell interests us only because it also touches upon the question of mortality. As for the question itself about the connection between solar activity, on the one hand, and murders, suicides and epilepsy – on the other, this question was already resolved earlier in our work 1927 “On the connection between the periodic activity of the Sun and crime” (Moscow)2 in our work. “The factor contributing to the emergence and spread of excitability under the influence of perturbations in the external physico-chemical environment” (Berlin) and in the statistics of Ammann (Ammann) and Kritsinger (Kritsinger), fig. 101, les recrues, vieillit. Le temps passe. Les années s’en vont. Mais l’homme reste le même.”

As for the question about the connection between the frequency of epileptic attacks and the solar processes, it will not be superfluous here to mention the old research of the Russian doctors Sokolov and Orlean concerning the connection between epilepsy and the Earth’s magnetism, since a number of phenomena in the Earth’s magnetic field are in a direct dependence on the activity of the Sun. Both doctors independently of each other came to the same conclusion: the distribution of epileptic attacks in time has a certain analogy with the phenomena of the Earth’s magnetism. This analogy is seen in the daily distribution of attacks and is revealed in the inverse proportionality of the number of attacks to the degree of tension of the Earth’s magnetism (fig. 104). All other meteorological elements in this direction show negative results. Sv. Arrhenius subjected the digital material collected by Sokolov to mathematical processing, as a result of which it was revealed that the frequency of epileptic attacks also stands in a certain ratio to the course of the atmospheric electricity. Although Sokolov in his work writes that “the connection between magnetic disturbances (storms) and the development of attacks, apparently, does not exist,” however, his work, as well as the work of Orlean, represent for us an interest in that they point to the connection between attacks of an acute disease of the brain – epilepsy and the fluctuations in the magnetic field of the Earth or the electric field of the atmosphere, the direct connection of which with the solar perturbations is beyond doubt.

In the works of Sokolov and Orlean, we have to do only with the daily period. The same 27-day period in the biological functions was discovered long before us by other researchers. Svante Arrhenius in 1898 established a 27-day period for menstruation, epileptic attacks and other phenomena. The Russian physiologist N. Ya. Perna (1925) collected enormous statistical material about various functions of physiological and psychic activity of a person, partly conducting observations over himself, and came to the conclusion about the existence of a clearly expressed 27–28-day period. Finally, a 27-day period was found in 1920 by B. Spear (V. Spear) in the development of influenza epidemics. We pointed out in 1927 that during water epidemics of abdominal typhus, the same periodicity is revealed. We will not present other examples, of which there are quite a few.

Thus, the entire set of research by various authors leads us to the following main conclusion: the eruptive activity of the Sun, through the mediation of X-agents, influences the human organism that is in a state of disease, overexcitement, old age, etc., and can lead to sudden death, i.e. the cosmic factor does not by itself cause death, but draws the organism that is in an unstable equilibrium closer to it. In the future, it was necessary to deepen this phenomenon, to study it in detail. On this account, both we and Dr. Faure with his colleagues clearly expressed the need to study all those periods that are revealed in the eruptive and spot-forming activity of the Sun. And as we know, the activity of the Sun, in addition to the main period of 11 years, has many more periods of greater or lesser duration. So many of these periods could be revealed on the Earth in the electric and magnetic phenomena of the atmosphere and the Earth’s crust. Especially pronounced dependence of the Earth’s magneto-electric phenomena on the synodic, visible rotation of the Sun, or rather, from the movement together with the rotating Sun of the places of disturbance, eruptive centers and spots on the Sun. The time of the turn (synodic) of the Sun around its axis is equal to 27 days. This 27-day period is very well and clearly expressed in the course of the magnetic elements of the Earth’s magnetism, in magnetic storms, in the northern lights, etc. In our works, the 27-day period was repeatedly revealed in those or other biological phenomena. So, for example, a 27-day period in the psycho-nervous activity is specially devoted to the work in 1915–1917, extracts from which can be found in the “German-Russian Medical Journal” (vol. 4, no. 8, p. 411 and 412, 83 av.).

But justice requires us to point out that the same 27-day period in biological functions was discovered long before us by other researchers. Svante Arrhenius in 1898 established a 27-day period for menstruation, epileptic attacks and other phenomena. The Russian physiologist N. Ya. Perna (1925) collected enormous statistical material about various functions of physiological and psychic activity of a person and came to the conclusion about the existence of a clearly expressed 27–28-day period. Finally, a 27-day period was found in 1920 by B. Spear (V. Spear) in the development of influenza epidemics. We pointed out in 1927 that during water epidemics of abdominal typhus, the same periodicity is revealed. We will not present other examples, of which there are quite a few.

Thus, the entire set of research by various authors leads us to the following main conclusion: the eruptive activity of the Sun, through the mediation of X-agents, influences the human organism that is in a state of disease, overexcitement, old age, etc., and can lead to sudden death, i